Back during the housing crises there seemed like an almost daily update of companies going under, job loss, foreclosures, etc. And while we aren't there we had a pretty big announcement today in my field after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced a new 50bps loan pricing adjustment on all refinance loans purchased on or after September 1st – so basically, nearly every loan that is being refinanced by them.
The move, obviously meant to "help" our struggling, coronavirus-weakened economy, comes at the directive of the FHFA and is meant to curb the “higher risk and costs” associated with refinance mortgages (yeah, right). This coming after Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae enjoyed record earnings in Q2 of $1.8 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively. This is an obvious cash grab by the agencies. Some say, the move was meant to bolster the GSE’s capital levels as they prepare to blast back out in to the private sector; an interesting move, given how effective the Federal government has used the GSEs as an effective vehicle for taxing American homeowners. To be sure, most Americans have absolutely no clue how the GSE’s even work.
As for the market, my sense is that it will take several weeks for it to adjust to this new pricing hit on Refis. A 50bp pricing adjustment is roughly equivalent to an extra 1/8th in interest rate – an 1/8th that homeowners will unwittingly pay on loans going forward when they lower their monthly mortgage payment. What’s not apparent at the moment, is how will other components of pricing react – namely, servicing values, MBS pricing, and spreads between mortgage rates and treasury rates. We’ll certainly see some movement and at the end of the day, the net-impact on borrowers will be something lower than 50bps. Interest rates were under pressure for the 4th day in a row after Initial Jobless Claims came in just below 1 million for the first time in 21 weeks – a positive sign for our country. While the yield on the 10yr moved above support at 71bps, mortgages closed the day sharply unchanged… see – already reaping the benefits of the new pricing adjustment on Refis!
