Last Week: What Happened in Rates & Mortgages
Interest rates mostly moved sideways last week as markets grew more comfortable that the Fed is done raising rates, but not yet ready to cut. Treasury yields stayed in a fairly tight range, and volatility continued to calm down. Mortgage rates followed Treasuries lower in an orderly way, with mortgage‑backed securities holding steady. While mortgage rates remain elevated compared to a few years ago, pricing has become more stable, which is helping improve consistency in rate sheets.
Week Ahead: What the Market Is Watching
This week is all about inflation, jobs, and the Fed. Key data includes Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims, which will give the market clues on whether inflation continues to cool and whether the labor market is softening. Most lenders and investors are likely to stay cautious until after the Fed decision, meaning rates may stay range‑bound unless the data clearly surprises. For mortgages, Treasury movement will continue to be the main driver of day‑to‑day rate changes.
Fed Rate Decision: What It Means for Rates
The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, so the focus will be on what Chair Powell says about inflation, the economy, and the outlook for future rate cuts. Markets want confirmation that rate hikes are behind us and better clarity on when cuts could eventually begin. If the Fed sounds more confident that inflation is coming down, rates could drift lower. For mortgage rates, steady Fed messaging helps keep volatility down, which is positive for pricing—even if big rate drops take time.
WEEKLY INTEREST RATE SNAPSHOT (Images)
*National average rates are provided by Bankrate.com and Bloomberg Professional as of 1/26/2026 and are not advertised rates from Rate, Inc.
