Joe,
Thank you for your response, I'll definitely keep that in mind about Net Worth and the like having experience in estimating costs. And I completely agree about doing my own diligence. But I believe (and I may be wrong) that this is a special case.
Currently my mind is going in the direction that if I can get a good idea of ARV, even if it's sight unseen, if I make an informal offer of around 50% of ARV, and the seller doesn't send me hate mail, it would be safe to assume they are a motivated seller.
Once I am pretty sure they are a motivated seller, even if the distance makes the transaction difficult for me to wholesale, bird dogging would still be a very viable option. If a bird dogs main goal is strictly to find motivated sellers, and determine an approximate price that they'll accept, the cash buyer I sell the info to, will want to do all their own due diligence. At that time they would make a formal offer that suits what they they think they can do and turn a profit.
I know you, and most of the other members of the club are much more experienced than I am, so if any of my points are incorrect or mislead, I'd greatly appreciate any advice you guys and gals have. But at least on these 3 properties (more like 2 of them) I believe this will be how I proceed. Making a lowball offer then feeding the info to someone in the area who can analyze the deal for themselves.