Dallas-Fort Worth Real Estate Investor Club

Lessons from a Currency Debacle of the Past

  • 21 Jan 2013 11:59 PM
    Message # 1185524
    Robin Carriger (Administrator)

    The following is an excerpt from James Rickards' book, "Currency Wars- The Making of the Next Global Crisis."  There's even more detail in the book about the story below, but I wanted to share this excerpt, because it gives valuable insights on what to do and what not to do as you position yourself financially in a nation that continues to add tens of billions of dollars to the money supply every month to fund its rapidly growing national debt.

       "Currency War I began in 1921 in Weimar Germany when the Reichsbank, Germany's central bank, set about to destroy the value of the German mark through massive money printing and hyperinflation... the inflation proceeded primarily through the Reichsbank's purchases of bills from the German government to supply the government with the money needed to fund budget deficits and government spending.  This was one of the most destructive and pervasive monetary debasements ever seen in a major developed economy.  A myth has persisted ever since that Germany destroyed its currency to get out from under onerous war reparations demanded by England and France in the Treaty of Versailles.  In fact, those reparations were tied to "gold marks," defined as a fixed amount of gold or its equivalent in non-German currency, and subsequent treaty protocols were based on a percentage of German exports regardless of the paper currency value.  Those gold and export-ralated specifications could not be inflated anyway.  However, the Reichsbank did see an opportunity to increase German exports by debasing its currency both to make German goods more affordable abroad - one typical reason for a debasement - as well as to encourage tourism and foreign investment.  These methods could provide foreign exchange needed to pay reparations without diminishing the amount of reparations directly."

       "As inflation slowly began to take off in late 1921, it was not immediately perceived as a threat.  The German people understood that prices were going up, but that did not automatically translate into the equivalent notion that the currency was collapsing.  German banks had liabilities nearly equal to their assets and so were largely hedged.  Many businesses owned hard assets such as land, plant equipment and inventories that gained nominal value as the currency collapsed and therefore were also hedged.  Some of those companies also owed debts that evaporated as the amounts owed became worthless, and so were enriched by being relieved of their debts.  Many large German corporations, predecessors of today's global giants, had operations outside of Germany, which earned hard currency and further insulated their parent companies from the worst effects of the collapse of the mark."

       "Capital flight is a traditional response to currency collapse.  Those who could convert marks into Swiss francs, gold or other stores of value did so and moved their savings abroad.  Even the German bourgeoisie was not immediately alarmed as losses in the value of their currency were offset by stock market gains.  The fact that these gains were denominated in soon to be worthless marks had not yet occurred to many.  Finally, those who held unionized and government jobs were initially hedged as well because the government simply granted wage increases commensurate with inflation."

       "Of course, not everyone had a government or union job, stock portfolio, hard assets or foreign operations to insulate them.  Those most devastated were middle-class pensioners who no longer qualified for raises and savers who kept their funds in banks rather than stocks.  These Germans were completely financially ruined.  Many were forced to sell their funriture to raise a few marks to pay for food and keep going.  Pianos were particularly in demand and became a form of currency on their own.  Some elderly couples whose savings had been destroyed would go into the kitchen, hold hands, place their heads in the oven and turn on the gas in a poignant form of suicide.  Property crime became rampant and, in the later stages, riots and looting were common."

    Last modified: 22 Jan 2013 12:02 AM | Robin Carriger (Administrator)
  • 01 Feb 2013 10:26 PM
    Reply # 1196219 on 1185524
    Deleted user
    Yikes! This sounds ominously familiar... Thanks for the history lesson :)  It's amazing what you can keep from happening if you just look at what's BEEN happening! I'm so thankful to be part of a group with a savvy fellow such as yourself :)
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